ATP tennis predict — Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe

ATP Hard Tokyo · R16 10:30

Predicted probability

Arthur Fils

France

66.77%

Frances Tiafoe

USA

33.23%

Average Odds

1.35 / 3.14

Market probability

69.93% / 30.07%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Fils is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2184 vs 2099), a stronger serve (62.9% vs 60.6% of service points won) and a better head-to-head record against Frances Tiafoe (2-0).

Player Comparison

2184.0 Elo 2098.8

2096.9 Elo (surface) 2034.2

132 Wins 301

79 Wins (surface) 209

12 Last 15 form 11

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.883 Dominance ratio 0.885

9 Rank 8

22.3 Age 28.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Fils

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Frances Tiafoe

1st Serve In %

60.4%

52.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.7%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.8%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.6%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.6%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.75

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Frances Tiafoe

Break Points Saved %

53.8%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.4%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

70.6%

Break Points Converted %

47.3%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Fils 2 – 0 Frances Tiafoe

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-23

F

Arthur Fils #21

Frances Tiafoe #23

6-3 1-6 6-0

11 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 4

59 Service Points 69

35 First Serve In 27

25 First Serve Won 18

16 Second Serve Won 23

4 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 8

23 Winners 9

29 Unforced Errors 25

1.5 Average Odds 2.7

Hard Miami Masters · 2025-03-19

R32

Arthur Fils #18

Frances Tiafoe #17

7-6(11) 5-7 6-2

21 Aces 11

4 Double Faults 5

100 Service Points 142

68 First Serve In 79

49 First Serve Won 52

19 Second Serve Won 30

2 Break Points Saved 10

5 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe — Prediction