ATP tennis predict — Arthur Fils vs Cameron Norrie

ATP Hard Montreal · R16 04:00

Predicted probability

Arthur Fils

France

56.31%

Cameron Norrie

Great Britain

43.69%

Average Odds

1.41 / 2.90

Market probability

67.29% / 32.71%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Fils is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1846 vs 1785) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1843 vs 1794).

Player Comparison

1846.5 Elo 1784.7

1843.3 Elo (surface) 1794.5

122 Wins 303

69 Wins (surface) 192

11 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.802 Dominance ratio 1.232

24 Rank 37

22.2 Age 31.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Fils

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Cameron Norrie

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Cameron Norrie

1st Serve In %

61.5%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.3%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%

63.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

68.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

49.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

34.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

55.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Cameron Norrie

Break Points Saved %

58.2%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

34.0%

47.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

47.3%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Fils 0 – 0 Cameron Norrie

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-09

R16

Arthur Fils #24

Cameron Norrie #37

6-2 7-6

5 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 3

75 Service Points 71

50 First Serve In 40

39 First Serve Won 29

15 Second Serve Won 15

4 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 8

29 Winners 12

30 Unforced Errors 28

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Arthur Fils vs Cameron Norrie — Prediction