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Arthur Fils vs Alex De Minaur — Prediction

ATP Hard Cincinnati · R16 20:00

Predicted probability

Arthur Fils

France

42.66%

Alex De Minaur

Australia

57.34%

Average Odds

1.54  /  2.47

Market probability

61.60%  /  38.40%

Why This Prediction?

Alex De Minaur is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (62.0% vs 57.1% of service points won), a stronger return game (40.7% vs 30.4% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating (1902 vs 1868).

Player Comparison

1868.1 Elo 1902.0
1859.5 Elo (surface) 1868.7
125 Wins 353
72 Wins (surface) 257
10 Last 15 form 10
1 Head-to-head wins 2
0.710 Dominance ratio 1.071
21 Rank 8
22.2 Age 27.5
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Fils

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–3L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Alex De Minaur

1st Serve In %

61.5%
55.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%
71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%
45.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.3%
29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%
43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.51
0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22
0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%
66.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%
74.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%
58.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%
32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%
53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.42
0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37
0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Alex De Minaur

Break Points Saved %

58.2%
62.7%

Break Points Converted %

34.0%
34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%
71.1%

Break Points Converted %

47.3%
42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Fils 1 – 2 Alex De Minaur

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-19

R16

Arthur Fils #21

Alex De Minaur #8

6-3 6-4
2 Aces 4
2 Double Faults 3
57 Service Points 64
40 First Serve In 37
32 First Serve Won 25
11 Second Serve Won 13
2 Break Points Saved 7
2 Break Points Faced 9
21 Winners 13
17 Unforced Errors 28
1.5 Average Odds 2.5
Hard Rotterdam · 2026-02-09

R32

Alex De Minaur #8

Arthur Fils #42

7-6(3) 6-2
2 Aces 4
1 Double Faults 3
57 Service Points 70
37 First Serve In 47
28 First Serve Won 29
16 Second Serve Won 11
1 Break Points Saved 2
2 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Grass Wimbledon · 2024-07-01

R16

Alex De Minaur #9

Arthur Fils #34

6-2 6-4 4-6 6-3
2 Aces 8
4 Double Faults 7
112 Service Points 124
60 First Serve In 71
43 First Serve Won 40
27 Second Serve Won 23
9 Break Points Saved 7
14 Break Points Faced 16
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Barcelona · 2024-04-15

R16

Arthur Fils #36

Alex De Minaur #11

7-5 6-2
4 Aces 2
1 Double Faults 4
56 Service Points 69
34 First Serve In 41
24 First Serve Won 25
12 Second Serve Won 11
1 Break Points Saved 5
3 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Arthur Fils — Last 10

L W W W W W W L W W

Alex De Minaur — Last 10

L W L W W L W L W W