ATP tennis predict — Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic

ATP Hard Shanghai · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Arthur Fery

Great Britain

66.12%

Marin Cilic

Croatia

33.88%

Average Odds

1.70 / 2.11

Market probability

55.38% / 44.62%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Fery is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1951 vs 1920), a stronger return game (38.9% vs 35.0% of return points won) and a stronger serve (68.1% vs 63.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1950.7 Elo 1920.3

1826.9 Elo (surface) 1876.5

27 Wins 636

15 Wins (surface) 393

10 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.222 Dominance ratio 0.947

37 Rank 80

24.2 Age 38.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Fery

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Marin Cilic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fery Marin Cilic

1st Serve In %

61.1%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.3%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

62.4%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.3%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.7%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.6%

80.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

55.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.2%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

1.02

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fery Marin Cilic

Break Points Saved %

71.2%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

53.2%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.6%

72.1%

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Fery and Marin Cilic have never played each other.

Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic — Prediction