ATP tennis predict — Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Arthur Fery

Great Britain

56.67%

Lorenzo Musetti

Italy

43.33%

Average Odds

4.03 / 1.25

Market probability

23.67% / 76.33%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Fery is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (67.7% vs 55.0% of service points won), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1745 vs 1690) and a stronger return game (38.0% vs 32.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1846.1 Elo 1848.0

1744.9 Elo (surface) 1690.0

27 Wins 214

15 Wins (surface) 106

11 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.179 Dominance ratio 0.729

33 Rank 14

24.1 Age 24.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Fery

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Lorenzo Musetti

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fery Lorenzo Musetti

1st Serve In %

61.0%

53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.7%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.7%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.6%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.2%

39.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fery Lorenzo Musetti

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

53.4%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.6%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

49.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Fery 0 – 0 Lorenzo Musetti

Hard US Open · 2026-09-01

1. round

Lorenzo Musetti #14

Arthur Fery #33

6-3 6-3 7-5

0 Aces 7

5 Double Faults 4

89 Service Points 79

47 First Serve In 48

29 First Serve Won 37

20 Second Serve Won 21

3 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 6

17 Winners 22

43 Unforced Errors 28

1.2 Average Odds 4.0

Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti — Prediction