ATP tennis predict — Arthur Fery vs Alex De Minaur

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 3. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Arthur Fery

Great Britain

33.51%

Alex De Minaur

Australia

66.49%

Average Odds

4.30 / 1.22

Market probability

22.10% / 77.90%

Why This Prediction?

Alex De Minaur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1862 vs 1711), a higher Elo rating (1894 vs 1839) and a stronger return game (42.5% vs 36.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1838.9 Elo 1894.0

1710.6 Elo (surface) 1862.2

23 Wins 352

11 Wins (surface) 256

11 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.005 Dominance ratio 1.151

37 Rank 8

24.1 Age 27.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Fery

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fery Alex De Minaur

1st Serve In %

61.0%

55.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.7%

45.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.7%

66.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.6%

74.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

58.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.2%

32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fery Alex De Minaur

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

53.4%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.6%

71.1%

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Fery 0 – 0 Alex De Minaur

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-17

3. round

Alex De Minaur #8

Arthur Fery #37

7-5 7-6

5 Aces 9

3 Double Faults 3

89 Service Points 83

49 First Serve In 44

30 First Serve Won 29

23 Second Serve Won 27

1 Break Points Saved 11

4 Break Points Faced 13

21 Winners 27

49 Unforced Errors 32

1.2 Average Odds 4.3

Arthur Fery vs Alex De Minaur — Prediction