ATP tennis predict — Arda Azkara vs Yanki Erel

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Arda Azkara

Turkey

38.08%

Yanki Erel

Turkey

61.92%

Average Odds

3.69 / 1.24

Market probability

25.15% / 74.85%

Why This Prediction?

Yanki Erel is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1566 vs 1501), a higher Elo rating (1522 vs 1480) and more career match wins (38 vs 9).

Player Comparison

1480.1 Elo 1522.5

1501.1 Elo (surface) 1566.1

9 Wins (Challenger) 38

8 Wins (surface) 30

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.966 Dominance ratio 1.064

808 Rank 287

23.4 Age 25.8

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arda Azkara

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Yanki Erel

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arda Azkara Yanki Erel

1st Serve In %

—

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

22.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

53.9%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.2%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

66.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

51.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arda Azkara Yanki Erel

Break Points Saved %

—

61.3%

Break Points Converted %

—

52.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.5%

64.2%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

29.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arda Azkara 0 – 0 Yanki Erel

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Yanki Erel #287

Arda Azkara #808

6-4 6-4

4 Aces 7

2 Double Faults 2

71 Service Points 57

33 First Serve In 30

22 First Serve Won 25

18 Second Serve Won 17

5 Break Points Saved 1

7 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.7

Arda Azkara vs Yanki Erel — Prediction