ATP tennis predict — Anton Shepp vs Mathys Erhard

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · qualification - 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Anton Shepp

New Zealand

22.14%

Mathys Erhard

France

77.86%

Average Odds

2.37 / 1.53

Market probability

39.23% / 60.77%

Why This Prediction?

Mathys Erhard is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1615 vs 1398), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1563 vs 1406) and more career match wins (77 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1398.2 Elo 1615.3

1405.9 Elo (surface) 1563.1

2 Wins (Challenger) 77

2 Wins (surface) 19

2 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.907 Dominance ratio 1.066

499 Rank 339

23.8 Age 24.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Anton Shepp

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-14.

Mathys Erhard

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Anton Shepp Mathys Erhard

1st Serve In %

60.0%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.3%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.9%

48.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

15.2%

32.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

62.2%

Aces per Service Game

1.10

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.10

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.7%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.5%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.6%

41.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Anton Shepp Mathys Erhard

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

65.1%

Break Points Converted %

100.0%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.2%

51.0%

Break Points Converted %

38.5%

28.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Anton Shepp 0 – 0 Mathys Erhard

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-08-31

qualification - 1. round

Mathys Erhard #339

Anton Shepp #499

6-1 7-5

5 Aces 10

1 Double Faults 4

57 Service Points 73

30 First Serve In 37

19 First Serve Won 31

14 Second Serve Won 20

1 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Anton Shepp vs Mathys Erhard — Prediction