ATP tennis predict — Anton Matusevich vs Luca Staeheli

Challenger Clay Zug challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Anton Matusevich

Great Britain

39.57%

Luca Staeheli

Switzerland

60.43%

Average Odds

1.54 / 2.33

Market probability

60.21% / 39.79%

Why This Prediction?

Luca Staeheli is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1673 vs 1493), a higher Elo rating (1631 vs 1525) and a stronger return game (47.0% vs 38.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1525.2 Elo 1631.1

1493.4 Elo (surface) 1673.2

29 Wins (Challenger) 10

16 Wins (surface) 10

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.028 Dominance ratio 1.239

373 Rank 541

25.1 Age 26.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Anton Matusevich

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Luca Staeheli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Anton Matusevich Luca Staeheli

1st Serve In %

56.2%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.56

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.9%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.6%

45.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

35.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

55.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Anton Matusevich Luca Staeheli

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

39.6%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.8%

66.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Anton Matusevich 0 – 0 Luca Staeheli

Clay Zug challenger · 2026-07-20

qualification - round of 16

Anton Matusevich #373

Luca Staeheli #541

6-3 6-2

3 Aces 4

7 Double Faults 2

58 Service Points 46

26 First Serve In 29

16 First Serve Won 22

15 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.3

Anton Matusevich vs Luca Staeheli — Prediction