ATP tennis predict — Anton Matusevich vs Andrea Guerrieri

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · 1. round 13:30

Predicted probability

Anton Matusevich

Great Britain

36.27%

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

63.73%

Average Odds

- / -

Market probability

- / -

Why This Prediction?

Andrea Guerrieri is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1799 vs 1684), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1728 vs 1628) and a stronger return game (39.2% vs 32.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1683.5 Elo 1799.1

1627.7 Elo (surface) 1727.9

39 Wins (Challenger) 56

15 Wins (surface) 16

11 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.779 Dominance ratio 0.983

313 Rank 164

25.3 Age 27.8

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Anton Matusevich

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Andrea Guerrieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Anton Matusevich Andrea Guerrieri

1st Serve In %

56.2%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

59.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

53.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

67.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.7%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.2%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.2%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.48

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Anton Matusevich Andrea Guerrieri

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

39.6%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

46.0%

58.8%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

32.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Anton Matusevich and Andrea Guerrieri have never played each other.

Anton Matusevich vs Andrea Guerrieri — Prediction