ATP tennis predict — Antoine Ghibaudo vs Ilia Simakin

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · SF 14:00

Predicted probability

Antoine Ghibaudo

France

35.49%

Ilia Simakin

Russia

64.51%

Average Odds

2.44 / 1.52

Market probability

38.38% / 61.62%

Why This Prediction?

Ilia Simakin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1677 vs 1579), a stronger serve (67.7% vs 62.7% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1750 vs 1667).

Player Comparison

1579.0 Elo 1677.1

1666.7 Elo (surface) 1749.5

55 Wins (Challenger) 66

44 Wins (surface) 63

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.903 Dominance ratio 1.231

351 Rank 297

21.5 Age 22.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Antoine Ghibaudo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Ilia Simakin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 11W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Antoine Ghibaudo Ilia Simakin

1st Serve In %

58.0%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.3%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.2%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.3%

24.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

42.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.3%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.0%

56.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%

64.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.3%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.36

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Antoine Ghibaudo Ilia Simakin

Break Points Saved %

73.7%

85.7%

Break Points Converted %

22.2%

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.2%

54.3%

Break Points Converted %

34.9%

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Antoine Ghibaudo 0 – 0 Ilia Simakin

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-08

SF

Ilia Simakin #297

Antoine Ghibaudo #351

7-6 7-6

5 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

89 Service Points 75

63 First Serve In 45

42 First Serve Won 30

14 Second Serve Won 20

4 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Antoine Ghibaudo vs Ilia Simakin — Prediction