ATP tennis predict — Andrey Rublev vs Timofey Skatov

ATP Clay Estoril · R16

Predicted probability

Andrey Rublev

Russia

72.82%

Timofey Skatov

Kazakhstan

27.18%

Average Odds

1.05 / 10.08

Market probability

90.57% / 9.43%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Rublev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1853 vs 1640), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1933 vs 1666) and a stronger serve (69.5% vs 65.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1853.0 Elo 1639.7

1933.0 Elo (surface) 1666.3

435 Wins 44

117 Wins (surface) 26

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.244 Dominance ratio 1.042

14 Rank 163

28.8 Age 25.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Timofey Skatov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Timofey Skatov

1st Serve In %

59.7%

67.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.4%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

64.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.7%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Timofey Skatov

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

64.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

46.8%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrey Rublev 0 – 0 Timofey Skatov

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-23

R16

Andrey Rublev #14

Timofey Skatov #163

6-1 6-1

4 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 4

39 Service Points 42

23 First Serve In 22

17 First Serve Won 8

12 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 10

29 Winners 9

14 Unforced Errors 20

1.1 Average Odds 10.1

Andrey Rublev vs Timofey Skatov — Prediction