ATP tennis predict — Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Baez

ATP Clay Bastad · QF

Predicted probability

Andrey Rublev

Russia

58.04%

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

41.96%

Average Odds

1.57 / 2.38

Market probability

60.25% / 39.75%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Rublev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1831 vs 1771), a stronger serve (69.0% vs 57.8% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1898 vs 1827).

Player Comparison

1830.9 Elo 1770.6

1898.4 Elo (surface) 1827.0

432 Wins 143

114 Wins (surface) 102

10 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.188 Dominance ratio 0.866

16 Rank 56

28.7 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Sebastian Baez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Sebastian Baez

1st Serve In %

59.7%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

59.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.4%

50.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

22.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.7%

38.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

57.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Sebastian Baez

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrey Rublev 0 – 1 Sebastian Baez

Clay Bastad · 2026-07-17

QF

Andrey Rublev #16

Sebastian Baez #56

6-1 6-2

5 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 1

44 Service Points 45

27 First Serve In 28

21 First Serve Won 14

12 Second Serve Won 8

1 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 8

24 Winners 8

13 Unforced Errors 20

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Clay Bastad · 2022-07-11

SF

Sebastian Baez #34

Andrey Rublev #8

6-2 6-4

1 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 1

53 Service Points 59

42 First Serve In 40

29 First Serve Won 20

7 Second Serve Won 10

2 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Baez — Prediction