ATP tennis predict — Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin

ATP Hard Beijing · R16 04:00

Predicted probability

Andrey Rublev

Russia

70.27%

Roman Safiullin

Russia

29.73%

Average Odds

1.68 / 2.16

Market probability

56.25% / 43.75%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Rublev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2028 vs 1959), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1947 vs 1850) and a stronger return game (40.1% vs 36.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

2028.0 Elo 1958.8

1947.2 Elo (surface) 1850.2

442 Wins 106

295 Wins (surface) 66

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.240 Dominance ratio 1.185

24 Rank 84

29.0 Age 29.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–4L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Roman Safiullin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Roman Safiullin

1st Serve In %

59.2%

65.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.8%

71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.3%

59.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.5%

33.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.7%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.68

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

67.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

55.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.7%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Roman Safiullin

Break Points Saved %

66.3%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

36.0%

38.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

71.0%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

56.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrey Rublev 0 – 1 Roman Safiullin

Grass Wimbledon · 2026-06-29

1. round

Roman Safiullin #132

Andrey Rublev #13

6-4 6-7 3-6 6-3 7-6

22 Aces 11

8 Double Faults 3

187 Service Points 153

123 First Serve In 103

92 First Serve Won 85

34 Second Serve Won 30

10 Break Points Saved 4

13 Break Points Faced 6

54 Winners 56

34 Unforced Errors 38

2.7 Average Odds 1.4

Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin — Prediction