ATP tennis predict — Andrey Rublev vs Pablo Carreno Busta

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 2. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Andrey Rublev

Russia

73.51%

Pablo Carreno Busta

Spain

26.49%

Average Odds

1.45 / 2.76

Market probability

65.56% / 34.44%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Rublev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1833 vs 1762), a stronger serve (72.0% vs 59.1% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1789 vs 1730).

Player Comparison

1833.2 Elo 1761.6

1789.3 Elo (surface) 1729.7

436 Wins 335

289 Wins (surface) 185

10 Last 15 form 9

4 Head-to-head wins 0

1.444 Dominance ratio 0.867

16 Rank 68

28.8 Age 35.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Pablo Carreno Busta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Pablo Carreno Busta

1st Serve In %

59.7%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

65.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.4%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.7%

38.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Pablo Carreno Busta

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

51.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

38.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

52.4%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrey Rublev 4 – 0 Pablo Carreno Busta

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-16

2. round

Andrey Rublev #18

Pablo Carreno Busta #72

7-6 6-1

6 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 7

58 Service Points 70

33 First Serve In 39

28 First Serve Won 26

10 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 0

2 Break Points Faced 4

25 Winners 12

32 Unforced Errors 26

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Hard Beijing · 2024-09-26

R32

Andrey Rublev #6

Pablo Carreno Busta #201

6-0 4-6 6-4

12 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 2

75 Service Points 78

43 First Serve In 45

33 First Serve Won 28

17 Second Serve Won 17

4 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Hamburg · 2019-07-22

SF

Andrey Rublev #78

Pablo Carreno Busta #59

4-6 7-5 6-1

11 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 2

90 Service Points 82

53 First Serve In 54

38 First Serve Won 32

19 Second Serve Won 13

4 Break Points Saved 4

7 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Rome Masters · 2015-05-10

Q1

Andrey Rublev #254

Pablo Carreno Busta #59

6-4 6-7(6) 6-3

6 Aces 11

3 Double Faults 5

102 Service Points 93

59 First Serve In 55

41 First Serve Won 40

27 Second Serve Won 18

3 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Miami Masters · 2015-03-25

R128

Andrey Rublev #389

Pablo Carreno Busta #54

1-6 6-1 6-4

5 Aces 6

6 Double Faults 0

94 Service Points 78

57 First Serve In 41

38 First Serve Won 29

17 Second Serve Won 16

8 Break Points Saved 7

11 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Andrey Rublev vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Andrey Rublev — Last 10

Pablo Carreno Busta — Last 10