ATP tennis predict — Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 3. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Andrey Rublev

Russia

67.40%

Nuno Borges

Portugal

32.60%

Average Odds

1.59 / 2.35

Market probability

59.64% / 40.36%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Rublev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1840 vs 1809), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1798 vs 1756) and a stronger return game (41.4% vs 37.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1840.1 Elo 1809.3

1797.7 Elo (surface) 1755.6

437 Wins 110

290 Wins (surface) 61

10 Last 15 form 10

5 Head-to-head wins 0

1.495 Dominance ratio 1.179

18 Rank 47

28.8 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Nuno Borges

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Nuno Borges

1st Serve In %

59.7%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

78.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.4%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.66

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.7%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Nuno Borges

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

56.1%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

66.2%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrey Rublev 5 – 0 Nuno Borges

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-18

3. round

Nuno Borges #47

Andrey Rublev #18

6-3 6-4

5 Aces 8

1 Double Faults 1

55 Service Points 59

32 First Serve In 39

21 First Serve Won 30

12 Second Serve Won 11

1 Break Points Saved 3

4 Break Points Faced 4

15 Winners 18

24 Unforced Errors 19

2.4 Average Odds 1.6

Clay French Open · 2026-05-29

3. round

Andrey Rublev #13

Nuno Borges #51

7-5 7-6 7-6

6 Aces 12

1 Double Faults 3

114 Service Points 115

78 First Serve In 73

56 First Serve Won 55

18 Second Serve Won 24

7 Break Points Saved 3

10 Break Points Faced 5

28 Winners 44

31 Unforced Errors 39

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2026-04-05

R64

Andrey Rublev #15

Nuno Borges #50

6-4 1-6 6-1

4 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 2

71 Service Points 66

43 First Serve In 41

33 First Serve Won 32

14 Second Serve Won 10

2 Break Points Saved 3

4 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Hong Kong · 2026-01-05

QF

Andrey Rublev #16

Nuno Borges #45

6-3 6-4

7 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 0

50 Service Points 69

38 First Serve In 47

34 First Serve Won 33

7 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 6

1 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Doha · 2025-02-17

R16

Andrey Rublev #10

Nuno Borges #39

6-3 6-4

11 Aces 6

0 Double Faults 2

49 Service Points 52

40 First Serve In 40

33 First Serve Won 28

8 Second Serve Won 5

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Basel · 2024-10-21

R32

Andrey Rublev #7

Nuno Borges #33

6-3 6-2

4 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 3

47 Service Points 56

26 First Serve In 30

25 First Serve Won 19

10 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 6

1 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Andrey Rublev — Last 10

Nuno Borges — Last 10