ATP tennis predict — Andrey Rublev vs Luciano Darderi

ATP Clay Bastad · F

Predicted probability

Andrey Rublev

Russia

60.40%

Luciano Darderi

Italy

39.60%

Average Odds

1.67 / 2.18

Market probability

56.62% / 43.38%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Rublev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1846 vs 1777), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1922 vs 1846) and a stronger serve (69.4% vs 65.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1846.0 Elo 1776.8

1921.5 Elo (surface) 1845.7

434 Wins 88

116 Wins (surface) 68

10 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.232 Dominance ratio 1.003

16 Rank 18

28.7 Age 24.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Luciano Darderi

1st Serve In %

59.7%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.4%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.77

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

52.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.7%

36.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

57.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Luciano Darderi

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

71.2%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

48.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrey Rublev 1 – 0 Luciano Darderi

Clay Bastad · 2026-07-19

F

Andrey Rublev #14

Luciano Darderi #21

6-4 6-3

4 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 3

61 Service Points 53

38 First Serve In 38

33 First Serve Won 25

13 Second Serve Won 10

2 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 4

25 Winners 9

24 Unforced Errors 25

1.7 Average Odds 2.2

Clay Hamburg · 2025-05-18

QF

Andrey Rublev #17

Luciano Darderi #45

6-1 3-6 6-3

5 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 4

80 Service Points 77

48 First Serve In 52

39 First Serve Won 34

16 Second Serve Won 13

5 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Andrey Rublev vs Luciano Darderi — Prediction