ATP tennis predict — Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche

ATP Clay Estoril · QF

Predicted probability

Andrey Rublev

Russia

67.42%

Luca Van Assche

France

32.58%

Average Odds

1.20 / 4.47

Market probability

78.84% / 21.16%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Rublev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1857 vs 1729), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1938 vs 1774) and a stronger serve (71.5% vs 58.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1856.9 Elo 1728.6

1938.2 Elo (surface) 1774.0

436 Wins 53

118 Wins (surface) 18

11 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.419 Dominance ratio 0.976

14 Rank 78

28.8 Age 22.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Luca Van Assche

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Luca Van Assche

1st Serve In %

59.7%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.4%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

55.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.7%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Luca Van Assche

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

48.8%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrey Rublev 1 – 0 Luca Van Assche

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-24

QF

Luca Van Assche #78

Andrey Rublev #14

3-6 6-3 6-4

9 Aces 5

4 Double Faults 2

91 Service Points 94

58 First Serve In 61

43 First Serve Won 44

17 Second Serve Won 20

9 Break Points Saved 10

11 Break Points Faced 11

33 Winners 27

43 Unforced Errors 31

4.5 Average Odds 1.2

Hard Washington · 2024-07-29

R32

Andrey Rublev #8

Luca Van Assche #118

4-6 6-3 6-4

15 Aces 8

5 Double Faults 5

84 Service Points 75

59 First Serve In 44

49 First Serve Won 33

13 Second Serve Won 19

4 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche — Prediction