ATP tennis predict — Andrey Rublev vs Andrea Pellegrino

ATP Clay Bastad · R16

Predicted probability

Andrey Rublev

Russia

67.96%

Andrea Pellegrino

Italy

32.04%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.27

Market probability

70.93% / 29.07%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Rublev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1825 vs 1721), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1889 vs 1747) and a stronger return game (44.3% vs 35.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1824.7 Elo 1721.0

1889.4 Elo (surface) 1747.4

431 Wins 30

113 Wins (surface) 26

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.099 Dominance ratio 1.051

16 Rank 138

28.7 Age 29.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Andrea Pellegrino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Andrea Pellegrino

1st Serve In %

59.7%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

67.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.4%

53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

60.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.7%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

39.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Andrea Pellegrino

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

56.4%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrey Rublev 0 – 0 Andrea Pellegrino

Clay Bastad · 2026-07-16

R16

Andrey Rublev #16

Andrea Pellegrino #138

7-6 6-7 6-3

18 Aces 10

4 Double Faults 4

99 Service Points 123

66 First Serve In 77

53 First Serve Won 56

23 Second Serve Won 25

0 Break Points Saved 6

0 Break Points Faced 7

56 Winners 34

40 Unforced Errors 41

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Andrey Rublev vs Andrea Pellegrino — Prediction