ATP tennis predict — Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo

ATP Clay Bastad · SF

Predicted probability

Andrey Rublev

Russia

65.05%

Alejandro Tabilo

Chile

34.95%

Average Odds

1.41 / 2.86

Market probability

66.98% / 33.02%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Rublev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1838 vs 1804), a stronger serve (69.9% vs 62.7% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1910 vs 1831).

Player Comparison

1838.1 Elo 1803.8

1910.2 Elo (surface) 1830.8

433 Wins 131

115 Wins (surface) 58

10 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.279 Dominance ratio 0.958

16 Rank 31

28.7 Age 29.1

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrey Rublev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Alejandro Tabilo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Alejandro Tabilo

1st Serve In %

59.7%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.4%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

20.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

43.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.66

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

76.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.7%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.8%

53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Rublev Alejandro Tabilo

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

32.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

73.0%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

43.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrey Rublev 1 – 1 Alejandro Tabilo

Clay Bastad · 2026-07-18

SF

Andrey Rublev #16

Alejandro Tabilo #31

6-4 4-6 6-4

12 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 3

89 Service Points 97

49 First Serve In 67

38 First Serve Won 50

23 Second Serve Won 11

1 Break Points Saved 10

3 Break Points Faced 13

38 Winners 29

34 Unforced Errors 37

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Hard Miami Masters · 2026-03-18

R64

Alejandro Tabilo #41

Andrey Rublev #16

6-7(5) 6-2 6-4

12 Aces 15

5 Double Faults 4

92 Service Points 96

64 First Serve In 66

49 First Serve Won 55

16 Second Serve Won 10

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Basel · 2024-10-21

R16

Andrey Rublev #7

Alejandro Tabilo #21

7-6(3) 6-1

14 Aces 12

4 Double Faults 3

66 Service Points 57

47 First Serve In 42

39 First Serve Won 31

8 Second Serve Won 5

1 Break Points Saved 1

1 Break Points Faced 3