ATP tennis predict — Andrey Chepelev vs Niccolo Ciavarella

Challenger Clay Como challenger · qualification - 1. round 18:00

Predicted probability

Andrey Chepelev

Russia

82.70%

Niccolo Ciavarella

Italy

17.30%

Average Odds

1.12 / 5.36

Market probability

82.72% / 17.28%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Chepelev is the favorite because he has more career match wins (37 vs 0), a higher Elo rating (1436 vs 1428) and better recent form (5 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0).

Player Comparison

1436.1 Elo 1428.3

1437.9 Elo (surface) 1428.9

37 Wins (Challenger) 0

36 Wins (surface) 0

5 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.873 Dominance ratio 1.308

374 Rank 1022

28.1 Age 22.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrey Chepelev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Niccolo Ciavarella

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-06-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Chepelev Niccolo Ciavarella

1st Serve In %

67.9%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

50.0%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

29.7%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.27

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.4%

53.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

60.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

40.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.9%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.8%

46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Chepelev Niccolo Ciavarella

Break Points Saved %

30.8%

—

Break Points Converted %

20.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

44.6%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

38.2%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrey Chepelev 0 – 0 Niccolo Ciavarella

Clay Como challenger · 2026-08-30

qualification - 1. round

Andrey Chepelev #383

Niccolo Ciavarella #1030

6-2 6-2

3 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 2

40 Service Points 53

23 First Serve In 29

15 First Serve Won 14

14 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 5

1 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.4

Andrey Chepelev vs Niccolo Ciavarella — Prediction