ATP tennis predict — Andrey Chepelev vs Gianmarco Ferrari

Challenger Clay Genoa challenger · qualification - round of 16 10:00

Predicted probability

Andrey Chepelev

Russia

58.52%

Gianmarco Ferrari

Italy

41.48%

Average Odds

1.52 / 2.39

Market probability

61.13% / 38.87%

Why This Prediction?

Andrey Chepelev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1456 vs 1378), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1459 vs 1416) and a stronger return game (43.8% vs 39.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1456.0 Elo 1378.1

1458.8 Elo (surface) 1415.8

39 Wins (Challenger) 31

38 Wins (surface) 25

6 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.005 Dominance ratio 1.065

383 Rank 517

28.1 Age 25.9

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrey Chepelev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Gianmarco Ferrari

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Chepelev Gianmarco Ferrari

1st Serve In %

67.9%

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

50.0%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.2%

54.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.9%

30.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

29.7%

41.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.4%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.9%

68.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

57.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.9%

34.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.8%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrey Chepelev Gianmarco Ferrari

Break Points Saved %

30.8%

51.6%

Break Points Converted %

20.0%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

44.6%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.2%

31.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrey Chepelev 0 – 0 Gianmarco Ferrari

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-07

qualification - round of 16

Gianmarco Ferrari #517

Andrey Chepelev #383

6-3 6-3

2 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 0

62 Service Points 47

50 First Serve In 29

30 First Serve Won 24

4 Second Serve Won 13

7 Break Points Saved 1

10 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Andrey Chepelev vs Gianmarco Ferrari — Prediction