ATP tennis predict — Andrew Fenty vs Erik Arutiunian

Challenger Hard San Diego 2 challenger · qualification - round of 16 21:30

Predicted probability

Andrew Fenty

USA

55.11%

Erik Arutiunian

Belarus

44.89%

Average Odds

1.67 / 2.06

Market probability

55.23% / 44.77%

Why This Prediction?

Andrew Fenty is the favorite because he has the advantage of playing in his home country, more aces per game (0.17 vs 0.13) and a stronger serve (59.3% vs 39.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1554.0 Elo 1630.0

1539.3 Elo (surface) 1617.1

30 Wins (Challenger) 19

29 Wins (surface) 19

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.932 Dominance ratio 1.098

431 Rank 594

26.5 Age 21.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrew Fenty

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Erik Arutiunian

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrew Fenty Erik Arutiunian

1st Serve In %

61.4%

53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.3%

50.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.5%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.1%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.6%

58.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.6%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.4%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.0%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.8%

27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.3%

46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.69

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrew Fenty Erik Arutiunian

Break Points Saved %

58.1%

40.0%

Break Points Converted %

34.5%

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.9%

52.5%

Break Points Converted %

34.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrew Fenty 0 – 0 Erik Arutiunian

Hard San Diego 2 challenger · 2026-09-21

qualification - round of 16

Erik Arutiunian #594

Andrew Fenty #431

6-3 6-3

1 Aces 12

2 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

21 First Serve Won 27

9 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Andrew Fenty vs Erik Arutiunian — Prediction