ATP tennis predict — Andres Martin vs Nicolas Arseneault

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · 1. round 00:40

Predicted probability

Andres Martin

USA

74.22%

Nicolas Arseneault

Canada

25.78%

Average Odds

1.31 / 3.25

Market probability

71.27% / 28.73%

Why This Prediction?

Andres Martin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1604 vs 1419), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1607 vs 1421) and a stronger return game (38.4% vs 37.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1604.3 Elo 1419.4

1606.9 Elo (surface) 1420.8

59 Wins (Challenger) 9

51 Wins (surface) 9

7 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.059 Dominance ratio 1.010

340 Rank 1086

25.1 Age 19.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andres Martin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Nicolas Arseneault

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

7 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andres Martin Nicolas Arseneault

1st Serve In %

56.7%

59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.5%

73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.6%

43.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.5%

19.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.0%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.6%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.2%

72.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.9%

52.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

52.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andres Martin Nicolas Arseneault

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

57.9%

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.0%

51.1%

Break Points Converted %

40.5%

37.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andres Martin 0 – 1 Nicolas Arseneault

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-05

1. round

Andres Martin #340

Nicolas Arseneault #1086

6-2 6-2

3 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 3

60 Service Points 57

38 First Serve In 31

20 First Serve Won 21

8 Second Serve Won 18

11 Break Points Saved 4

16 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Hard Granby challenger · 2026-07-14

1. round

Nicolas Arseneault #780

Andres Martin #318

6-2 6-7 6-3

2 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 4

96 Service Points 106

63 First Serve In 72

46 First Serve Won 44

18 Second Serve Won 16

3 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.9 Average Odds 1.4

Andres Martin vs Nicolas Arseneault — Prediction