ATP tennis predict — Andres Andrade vs Andre Ilagan

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Andres Andrade

Ecuador

40.43%

Andre Ilagan

USA

59.57%

Average Odds

2.13 / 1.59

Market probability

42.74% / 57.26%

Why This Prediction?

Andre Ilagan is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1637 vs 1546), a higher Elo rating (1654 vs 1547) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1547.1 Elo 1653.7

1546.4 Elo (surface) 1637.3

68 Wins (Challenger) 75

33 Wins (surface) 72

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.971 Dominance ratio 0.890

262 Rank 248

27.6 Age 25.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andres Andrade

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Andre Ilagan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–8L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andres Andrade Andre Ilagan

1st Serve In %

62.5%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.0%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

52.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

41.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.7%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.0%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.9%

56.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

34.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

48.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andres Andrade Andre Ilagan

Break Points Saved %

80.0%

61.8%

Break Points Converted %

55.6%

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.6%

53.5%

Break Points Converted %

35.9%

34.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andres Andrade 0 – 0 Andre Ilagan

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-03

1. round

Andre Ilagan #243

Andres Andrade #251

6-3 6-4

5 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 1

64 Service Points 65

32 First Serve In 42

24 First Serve Won 34

15 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.1

Andres Andrade vs Andre Ilagan — Prediction