ATP tennis predict — Andres Andrade vs Alexei Popyrin

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Andres Andrade

Ecuador

40.30%

Alexei Popyrin

Australia

59.70%

Average Odds

4.50 / 1.18

Market probability

20.77% / 79.23%

Why This Prediction?

Alexei Popyrin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1674 vs 1536), more wins on hard courts (116 vs 3) and a stronger serve (70.9% vs 57.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1535.6 Elo 1673.8

1537.2 Elo (surface) 1546.7

67 Wins (Challenger) 70

32 Wins (surface) 34

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.946 Dominance ratio 1.320

262 Rank 103

27.6 Age 27.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andres Andrade

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Alexei Popyrin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andres Andrade Alexei Popyrin

1st Serve In %

62.5%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.0%

77.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.77

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.7%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.0%

77.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.9%

55.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.4%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.72

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andres Andrade Alexei Popyrin

Break Points Saved %

80.0%

56.0%

Break Points Converted %

55.6%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.6%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.9%

30.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andres Andrade 0 – 0 Alexei Popyrin

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-29

1. round

Andres Andrade #262

Alexei Popyrin #103

7-5 3-6 6-1

2 Aces 7

4 Double Faults 7

80 Service Points 108

51 First Serve In 57

35 First Serve Won 37

14 Second Serve Won 19

4 Break Points Saved 6

8 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

4.5 Average Odds 1.2

Andres Andrade vs Alexei Popyrin — Prediction