ATP tennis predict — Andrej Nedic vs Ergi Kirkin

Challenger Clay Hamburg challenger · 1. round 14:00

Predicted probability

Andrej Nedic

Bosnia and Herzeg.

58.79%

Ergi Kirkin

Turkey

41.21%

Average Odds

1.20 / 4.14

Market probability

77.53% / 22.47%

Why This Prediction?

Andrej Nedic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1602 vs 1527), a stronger return game (38.8% vs 38.1% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating (1589 vs 1520).

Player Comparison

1589.5 Elo 1519.7

1602.0 Elo (surface) 1527.3

25 Wins (Challenger) 95

25 Wins (surface) 60

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.980 Dominance ratio 0.963

246 Rank 608

21.8 Age 27.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrej Nedic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Ergi Kirkin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-07-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrej Nedic Ergi Kirkin

1st Serve In %

53.1%

58.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.2%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.5%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

24.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

40.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.67

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.0%

53.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.1%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

58.6%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

38.8%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

45.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrej Nedic Ergi Kirkin

Break Points Saved %

90.0%

60.4%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.1%

46.0%

Break Points Converted %

43.9%

44.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrej Nedic 0 – 0 Ergi Kirkin

Clay Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-11

1. round

Andrej Nedic #246

Ergi Kirkin #608

3-6 6-4 6-4

4 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 2

87 Service Points 95

32 First Serve In 64

21 First Serve Won 45

36 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 8

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.1

Andrej Nedic vs Ergi Kirkin — Prediction