ATP tennis predict — Andrea Pellegrino vs Lorenzo Giustino

Challenger Clay Maia challenger · 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Andrea Pellegrino

Italy

72.40%

Lorenzo Giustino

Italy

27.60%

Average Odds

1.48 / 2.41

Market probability

61.95% / 38.05%

Why This Prediction?

Andrea Pellegrino is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1760 vs 1621), a higher Elo rating (1750 vs 1645) and more wins on clay courts (193 vs 178).

Player Comparison

1750.4 Elo 1645.4

1760.4 Elo (surface) 1621.1

214 Wins (Challenger) 250

193 Wins (surface) 178

8 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 2

0.906 Dominance ratio 0.976

145 Rank 216

29.6 Age 35.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrea Pellegrino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Lorenzo Giustino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–6L · 40.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Pellegrino Lorenzo Giustino

1st Serve In %

58.6%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.2%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.2%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

27.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.6%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.0%

78.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

60.0%

52.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%

30.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

35.1%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Pellegrino Lorenzo Giustino

Break Points Saved %

60.6%

49.1%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.9%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

31.7%

36.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrea Pellegrino 1 – 2 Lorenzo Giustino

Clay Vicenza CH · 2022-05-23

R32

Andrea Pellegrino #222

Lorenzo Giustino #207

6-4 6-4

2 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 3

66 Service Points 79

39 First Serve In 43

27 First Serve Won 25

14 Second Serve Won 17

4 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Barletta CH · 2019-04-08

R32

Lorenzo Giustino #169

Andrea Pellegrino #359

5-1 RET

1 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 1

14 Service Points 15

9 First Serve In 9

6 First Serve Won 2

3 Second Serve Won 1

0 Break Points Saved 2

1 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Cordenons CH · 2017-08-14

QF

Lorenzo Giustino #197

Andrea Pellegrino #705

6-3 6-3

4 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 5

66 Service Points 58

36 First Serve In 30

25 First Serve Won 19

16 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 3

5 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Andrea Pellegrino vs Lorenzo Giustino — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Andrea Pellegrino — Last 10

Lorenzo Giustino — Last 10