ATP tennis predict — Andrea Pellegrino vs Gonzalo Bueno

ATP Clay Estoril · qualification - quarterfinal

Predicted probability

Andrea Pellegrino

Italy

61.36%

Gonzalo Bueno

Peru

38.64%

Average Odds

1.36 / 3.00

Market probability

68.81% / 31.19%

Why This Prediction?

Andrea Pellegrino is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1718 vs 1609), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1745 vs 1636) and more wins on clay courts (191 vs 97).

Player Comparison

1718.3 Elo 1609.3

1745.0 Elo (surface) 1636.0

31 Wins 6

27 Wins (surface) 4

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.088 Dominance ratio 0.848

138 Rank 176

29.3 Age 22.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrea Pellegrino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Gonzalo Bueno

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Pellegrino Gonzalo Bueno

1st Serve In %

58.6%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.2%

62.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.2%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

28.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.1%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.2%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.3%

60.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

60.0%

45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.1%

34.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.4%

43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Pellegrino Gonzalo Bueno

Break Points Saved %

60.6%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

48.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.4%

64.6%

Break Points Converted %

36.7%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrea Pellegrino 0 – 0 Gonzalo Bueno

Clay Estoril · 2026-07-19

qualification - quarterfinal

Gonzalo Bueno #180

Andrea Pellegrino #138

6-3 5-7 6-4

0 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 2

143 Service Points 98

94 First Serve In 64

53 First Serve Won 46

22 Second Serve Won 11

17 Break Points Saved 5

23 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3 Average Odds 1.4

Andrea Pellegrino vs Gonzalo Bueno — Prediction