ATP tennis predict — Andrea Guerrieri vs Maks Kasnikowski

Challenger Hard Olbia challenger · R16 11:00

Predicted probability

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

59.91%

Maks Kasnikowski

Poland

40.09%

Average Odds

1.64 / 2.10

Market probability

56.15% / 43.85%

Why This Prediction?

Andrea Guerrieri is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1801 vs 1700), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1741 vs 1646) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1801.3 Elo 1700.3

1740.7 Elo (surface) 1645.9

58 Wins (Challenger) 111

18 Wins (surface) 68

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.983 Dominance ratio 1.047

165 Rank 238

27.9 Age 23.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrea Guerrieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–2L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Maks Kasnikowski

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Guerrieri Maks Kasnikowski

1st Serve In %

58.6%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.5%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.5%

63.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.2%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.7%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.7%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

47.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Guerrieri Maks Kasnikowski

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

35.8%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.0%

54.8%

Break Points Converted %

32.8%

43.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrea Guerrieri and Maks Kasnikowski have never played each other.

Andrea Guerrieri vs Maks Kasnikowski — Prediction