ATP tennis predict — Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 2. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

38.83%

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

61.17%

Average Odds

2.20 / 1.62

Market probability

42.41% / 57.59%

Why This Prediction?

Joel Schwaerzler is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (70.2% vs 60.2% of service points won), fewer double faults per game (0.10 vs 0.18) and a better head-to-head record against Andrea Guerrieri (1-0).

Player Comparison

1684.4 Elo 1644.7

1667.8 Elo (surface) 1692.5

3 Wins 2

1 Wins (surface) 1

3 Last 15 form 2

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.137 Dominance ratio 0.863

187 Rank 171

27.7 Age 20.6

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrea Guerrieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Joel Schwaerzler

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Guerrieri Joel Schwaerzler

1st Serve In %

58.6%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

26.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.5%

44.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.5%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

25.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Guerrieri Joel Schwaerzler

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

57.6%

Break Points Converted %

35.8%

27.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

63.8%

Break Points Converted %

32.4%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrea Guerrieri 0 – 1 Joel Schwaerzler

Hard US Open · 2026-08-26

qualification - 2. round

Andrea Guerrieri #187

Joel Schwaerzler #171

3-6 6-4 6-1

7 Aces 2

7 Double Faults 4

85 Service Points 90

40 First Serve In 51

29 First Serve Won 32

24 Second Serve Won 16

7 Break Points Saved 9

10 Break Points Faced 14

32 Winners 20

37 Unforced Errors 40

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-09

F

Joel Schwaerzler #182

Andrea Guerrieri #213

7-6 6-1

8 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 4

64 Service Points 58

40 First Serve In 30

32 First Serve Won 21

15 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 3

0 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler — Prediction