ATP tennis predict — Andrea Guerrieri vs Jesper De Jong

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · R16 10:00

Predicted probability

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

41.22%

Jesper De Jong

Netherlands

58.78%

Average Odds

3.18 / 1.30

Market probability

29.02% / 70.98%

Why This Prediction?

Jesper De Jong is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (65.8% vs 60.2% of service points won), a higher Elo rating (1841 vs 1816) and a stronger return game (46.8% vs 39.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1816.5 Elo 1841.1

1760.9 Elo (surface) 1710.5

56 Wins (Challenger) 141

16 Wins (surface) 30

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.983 Dominance ratio 1.368

169 Rank 95

27.8 Age 26.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrea Guerrieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Jesper De Jong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Guerrieri Jesper De Jong

1st Serve In %

58.6%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

46.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.5%

52.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.5%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

39.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

55.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Guerrieri Jesper De Jong

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.8%

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

64.7%

Break Points Converted %

32.4%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrea Guerrieri and Jesper De Jong have never played each other.

Andrea Guerrieri vs Jesper De Jong — Prediction