ATP tennis predict — Andrea Guerrieri vs Francesco Maestrelli

Challenger Hard St. Tropez challenger · 1. round 15:00

Predicted probability

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

60.17%

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

39.83%

Average Odds

1.68 / 2.09

Market probability

55.44% / 44.56%

Why This Prediction?

Andrea Guerrieri is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1806 vs 1650), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1734 vs 1709) and a stronger return game (42.2% vs 32.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1805.6 Elo 1649.7

1733.8 Elo (surface) 1708.8

55 Wins (Challenger) 136

15 Wins (surface) 56

10 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.983 Dominance ratio 1.080

169 Rank 171

27.8 Age 23.8

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrea Guerrieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Francesco Maestrelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Guerrieri Francesco Maestrelli

1st Serve In %

58.6%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

44.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.5%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.5%

55.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

76.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

56.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

36.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Guerrieri Francesco Maestrelli

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

35.8%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

71.0%

Break Points Converted %

32.4%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrea Guerrieri 0 – 0 Francesco Maestrelli

Hard St. Tropez challenger · 2026-09-21

1. round

Andrea Guerrieri #169

Francesco Maestrelli #171

6-3 6-7 6-3

0 Aces 8

8 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

53 First Serve Won 39

20 Second Serve Won 17

6 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Andrea Guerrieri vs Francesco Maestrelli — Prediction