ATP tennis predict — Andrea Guerrieri vs Daniil Glinka

Challenger Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · SF 13:00

Predicted probability

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

43.53%

Daniil Glinka

Estonia

56.47%

Average Odds

1.64 / 2.17

Market probability

56.96% / 43.04%

Why This Prediction?

Daniil Glinka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1660 vs 1611), more wins on hard courts (69 vs 13) and a stronger serve (66.0% vs 59.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1672.7 Elo 1623.6

1610.7 Elo (surface) 1660.0

53 Wins (Challenger) 75

13 Wins (surface) 69

11 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.068 Dominance ratio 1.155

213 Rank 166

27.7 Age 26.2

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrea Guerrieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Daniil Glinka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Guerrieri Daniil Glinka

1st Serve In %

58.6%

61.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.5%

44.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.5%

65.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

68.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

35.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

51.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Guerrieri Daniil Glinka

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.8%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

54.2%

Break Points Converted %

32.4%

41.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrea Guerrieri 0 – 0 Daniil Glinka

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-08

SF

Andrea Guerrieri #213

Daniil Glinka #166

0-6 6-3 6-4

1 Aces 14

2 Double Faults 3

74 Service Points 71

42 First Serve In 43

25 First Serve Won 31

20 Second Serve Won 15

3 Break Points Saved 4

7 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Andrea Guerrieri vs Daniil Glinka — Prediction