ATP tennis predict — Andrea Guerrieri vs August Holmgren

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

52.43%

August Holmgren

Denmark

47.57%

Average Odds

2.21 / 1.62

Market probability

42.30% / 57.70%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1668.1 Elo 1589.1

1634.3 Elo (surface) 1633.1

2 Wins 17

0 Wins (surface) 9

2 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.107 Dominance ratio 0.900

189 Rank 226

27.7 Age 28.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrea Guerrieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

August Holmgren

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Guerrieri August Holmgren

1st Serve In %

58.6%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

21.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.5%

41.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.68

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.5%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

74.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

57.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Guerrieri August Holmgren

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

62.2%

Break Points Converted %

35.8%

22.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

75.5%

Break Points Converted %

32.4%

35.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrea Guerrieri 0 – 0 August Holmgren

Hard US Open · 2026-08-24

qualification - 1. round

Andrea Guerrieri #187

August Holmgren #244

6-3 6-7 6-2

2 Aces 11

4 Double Faults 6

90 Service Points 94

49 First Serve In 58

35 First Serve Won 41

25 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 8

27 Winners 32

9 Unforced Errors 22

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Andrea Guerrieri vs August Holmgren — Prediction