ATP tennis predict — Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex De Minaur

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 23:00

Predicted probability

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

23.82%

Alex De Minaur

Australia

76.18%

Average Odds

13.09 / 1.03

Market probability

7.29% / 92.71%

Why This Prediction?

Alex De Minaur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1892 vs 1720), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1857 vs 1729) and a stronger serve (69.6% vs 60.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1719.6 Elo 1891.6

1729.4 Elo (surface) 1857.4

5 Wins 353

3 Wins (surface) 257

5 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.059 Dominance ratio 0.990

187 Rank 7

27.8 Age 27.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andrea Guerrieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Alex De Minaur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Guerrieri Alex De Minaur

1st Serve In %

58.6%

55.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.2%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

45.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.5%

43.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.5%

66.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

74.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

58.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

32.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.7%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andrea Guerrieri Alex De Minaur

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.8%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

71.1%

Break Points Converted %

32.4%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andrea Guerrieri 0 – 0 Alex De Minaur

Hard US Open · 2026-09-02

1. round

Alex De Minaur #7

Andrea Guerrieri #187

6-2 6-2 6-4

2 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 5

76 Service Points 70

48 First Serve In 34

32 First Serve Won 28

10 Second Serve Won 20

6 Break Points Saved 0

12 Break Points Faced 1

16 Winners 20

33 Unforced Errors 29

1.0 Average Odds 13.1

Andrea Guerrieri vs Alex De Minaur — Prediction