ATP tennis predict — Andre Ilagan vs Soon Woo Kwon

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · R16 00:45

Predicted probability

Andre Ilagan

USA

23.04%

Soon Woo Kwon

South Korea

76.96%

Average Odds

4.23 / 1.20

Market probability

22.10% / 77.90%

Why This Prediction?

Soon Woo Kwon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1784 vs 1650), a higher Elo rating (1779 vs 1666) and a stronger serve (62.9% vs 57.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1665.8 Elo 1778.6

1650.3 Elo (surface) 1783.7

76 Wins (Challenger) 142

73 Wins (surface) 132

9 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.858 Dominance ratio 1.236

243 Rank 153

25.7 Age 28.7

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andre Ilagan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–8L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Soon Woo Kwon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andre Ilagan Soon Woo Kwon

1st Serve In %

59.5%

56.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.0%

76.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.0%

55.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.5%

53.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.0%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.1%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andre Ilagan Soon Woo Kwon

Break Points Saved %

61.8%

67.2%

Break Points Converted %

30.0%

40.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.5%

80.0%

Break Points Converted %

34.7%

49.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andre Ilagan 0 – 0 Soon Woo Kwon

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-06

R16

Andre Ilagan #243

Soon Woo Kwon #153

3-6 7-6 6-4

17 Aces 7

10 Double Faults 8

94 Service Points 158

53 First Serve In 93

37 First Serve Won 57

19 Second Serve Won 32

3 Break Points Saved 15

7 Break Points Faced 20

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

4.2 Average Odds 1.2

Andre Ilagan vs Soon Woo Kwon — Prediction