ATP tennis predict — Andre Ilagan vs Sebastian Gorzny

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · QF 19:30

Predicted probability

Andre Ilagan

USA

55.72%

Sebastian Gorzny

USA

44.28%

Average Odds

1.57 / 2.28

Market probability

59.22% / 40.78%

Why This Prediction?

Andre Ilagan is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1674 vs 1657), a higher Elo rating (1688 vs 1639) and more career match wins (77 vs 5).

Player Comparison

1688.4 Elo 1639.4

1674.0 Elo (surface) 1656.6

77 Wins (Challenger) 5

74 Wins (surface) 5

9 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.873 Dominance ratio 1.047

243 Rank 876

25.7 Age 22.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andre Ilagan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–8L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Sebastian Gorzny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andre Ilagan Sebastian Gorzny

1st Serve In %

59.5%

62.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.0%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.0%

43.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.5%

54.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.0%

58.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.1%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

44.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andre Ilagan Sebastian Gorzny

Break Points Saved %

61.8%

66.2%

Break Points Converted %

30.0%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.5%

57.3%

Break Points Converted %

34.7%

37.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andre Ilagan 0 – 0 Sebastian Gorzny

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-07

QF

Andre Ilagan #243

Sebastian Gorzny #876

7-6 6-4

2 Aces 10

2 Double Faults 2

71 Service Points 74

40 First Serve In 39

28 First Serve Won 23

21 Second Serve Won 24

0 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Andre Ilagan vs Sebastian Gorzny — Prediction