ATP tennis predict — Andre Ilagan vs Marat Sharipov

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · R16 06:30

Predicted probability

Andre Ilagan

USA

29.63%

Marat Sharipov

Russia

70.37%

Average Odds

2.95 / 1.36

Market probability

31.55% / 68.45%

Why This Prediction?

Marat Sharipov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1858 vs 1714), a higher Elo rating (1852 vs 1738) and a better head-to-head record against Andre Ilagan (2-0).

Player Comparison

1737.7 Elo 1852.1

1713.6 Elo (surface) 1857.9

84 Wins (Challenger) 62

81 Wins (surface) 53

9 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 2

1.075 Dominance ratio 1.005

195 Rank 238

25.9 Age 24.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andre Ilagan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–8L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

33 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Marat Sharipov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andre Ilagan Marat Sharipov

1st Serve In %

59.5%

52.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.0%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.0%

41.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

14.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

42.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.50

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.9%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

72.0%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.88

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andre Ilagan Marat Sharipov

Break Points Saved %

61.8%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

30.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

65.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.6%

36.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andre Ilagan 0 – 2 Marat Sharipov

Hard Gwangju CH · 2025-04-21

Q2

Marat Sharipov #256

Andre Ilagan #389

6-3 6-4

12 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 3

58 Service Points 66

31 First Serve In 46

26 First Serve Won 27

15 Second Serve Won 9

5 Break Points Saved 7

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Busan CH · 2025-04-14

Q2

Marat Sharipov #260

Andre Ilagan #384

6-3 6-4

8 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 3

60 Service Points 75

33 First Serve In 49

25 First Serve Won 28

14 Second Serve Won 11

6 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 11