ATP tennis predict — Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones

Challenger Hard Brownsburg challenger · SF 23:30

Predicted probability

Andre Ilagan

USA

58.10%

Jack Pinnington Jones

Great Britain

41.90%

Average Odds

2.39 / 1.52

Market probability

38.87% / 61.13%

Why This Prediction?

Andre Ilagan is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1717 vs 1544), a higher Elo rating (1725 vs 1655) and a stronger return game (38.0% vs 34.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1725.2 Elo 1654.5

1717.2 Elo (surface) 1544.0

81 Wins (Challenger) 52

78 Wins (surface) 34

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.945 Dominance ratio 0.836

243 Rank 172

25.7 Age 23.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Andre Ilagan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–8L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Jack Pinnington Jones

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andre Ilagan Jack Pinnington Jones

1st Serve In %

59.5%

61.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.0%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.0%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

54.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.5%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

66.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.0%

42.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.1%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.2%

45.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.73

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Andre Ilagan Jack Pinnington Jones

Break Points Saved %

61.8%

54.8%

Break Points Converted %

30.0%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.5%

40.6%

Break Points Converted %

34.7%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Andre Ilagan 0 – 0 Jack Pinnington Jones

Hard Brownsburg challenger · 2026-08-16

SF

Andre Ilagan #210

Jack Pinnington Jones #177

6-2 6-4

9 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 1

54 Service Points 69

30 First Serve In 32

23 First Serve Won 20

18 Second Serve Won 19

2 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Andre Ilagan vs Jack Pinnington Jones — Prediction