ATP tennis predict — Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Challenger Hard Kingston challenger · 1. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Alvaro Guillen Meza

Ecuador

25.87%

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Brazil

74.13%

Average Odds

2.74 / 1.37

Market probability

33.33% / 66.67%

Why This Prediction?

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1620 vs 1316), a higher Elo rating (1731 vs 1562) and a stronger serve (66.0% vs 57.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1562.0 Elo 1731.1

1315.9 Elo (surface) 1619.9

86 Wins (Challenger) 44

1 Wins (surface) 9

5 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.016 Dominance ratio 1.035

283 Rank 316

23.6 Age 29.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alvaro Guillen Meza

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-11.

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-29.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alvaro Guillen Meza Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

1st Serve In %

74.3%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.3%

73.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.7%

30.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.6%

44.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.4%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.4%

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.1%

34.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.29

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alvaro Guillen Meza Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

75.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

72.5%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

54.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alvaro Guillen Meza 0 – 0 Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Hard Kingston challenger · 2026-08-17

1. round

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes #316

Alvaro Guillen Meza #283

6-4 6-2

0 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 2

56 Service Points 47

33 First Serve In 29

20 First Serve Won 22

8 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes — Prediction