ATP tennis predict — Alibek Kachmazov vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Alibek Kachmazov

Russia

30.03%

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Japan

69.97%

Average Odds

2.04 / 1.57

Market probability

43.49% / 56.51%

Why This Prediction?

Jay Dylan Hara Friend is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1791 vs 1658), a higher Elo rating (1816 vs 1653) and a stronger serve (63.8% vs 59.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1652.5 Elo 1815.9

1657.6 Elo (surface) 1790.6

101 Wins (Challenger) 36

89 Wins (surface) 36

8 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.852 Dominance ratio 1.032

525 Rank 260

24.2 Age 22.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alibek Kachmazov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–7L · 58.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

33 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alibek Kachmazov Jay Dylan Hara Friend

1st Serve In %

58.1%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

65.7%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.46

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.8%

60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.2%

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.5%

46.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.8%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.8%

56.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alibek Kachmazov Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Break Points Saved %

65.3%

—

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

38.8%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alibek Kachmazov and Jay Dylan Hara Friend have never played each other.

Alibek Kachmazov vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend — Prediction