ATP tennis predict — Alexei Popyrin vs Titouan Droguet

ATP Hard Cincinnati · qualification - 1. round 22:30

Predicted probability

Alexei Popyrin

Australia

46.94%

Titouan Droguet

France

53.06%

Average Odds

1.72 / 2.06

Market probability

54.50% / 45.50%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1688.8 Elo 1760.9

1570.6 Elo (surface) 1657.6

182 Wins 43

119 Wins (surface) 22

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.088 Dominance ratio 0.820

139 Rank 119

27.0 Age 25.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexei Popyrin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Titouan Droguet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexei Popyrin Titouan Droguet

1st Serve In %

59.5%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.9%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

77.1%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.72

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexei Popyrin Titouan Droguet

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

68.0%

Break Points Converted %

30.8%

43.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexei Popyrin 0 – 0 Titouan Droguet

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-12

qualification - 1. round

Titouan Droguet #119

Alexei Popyrin #139

7-6 6-1

3 Aces 7

6 Double Faults 3

69 Service Points 53

37 First Serve In 31

25 First Serve Won 26

12 Second Serve Won 13

3 Break Points Saved 1

7 Break Points Faced 2

16 Winners 21

29 Unforced Errors 19

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Alexei Popyrin vs Titouan Droguet — Prediction