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Alexei Popyrin vs Thanasi Kokkinakis — Prediction

ATP Hard Montreal · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Alexei Popyrin

Australia

29.51%

Thanasi Kokkinakis

Australia

70.49%

Average Odds

2.46  /  1.51

Market probability

38.04%  /  61.96%

Why This Prediction?

Thanasi Kokkinakis is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1784 vs 1534), a higher Elo rating (1775 vs 1659) and a stronger serve (68.3% vs 63.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1659.3 Elo 1775.5
1533.6 Elo (surface) 1784.3
179 Wins 151
116 Wins (surface) 118
6 Last 15 form 8
0 Head-to-head wins 3
0.897 Dominance ratio 1.060
103 Rank 431
27.0 Age 30.3
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexei Popyrin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Thanasi Kokkinakis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexei Popyrin Thanasi Kokkinakis

1st Serve In %

59.5%
63.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.9%
77.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%
51.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%
27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%
44.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.77
0.88

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34
0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.3%
60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.1%
74.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%
51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%
33.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%
47.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.72
0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18
0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexei Popyrin Thanasi Kokkinakis

Break Points Saved %

56.0%
71.4%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%
41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%
64.7%

Break Points Converted %

30.8%
48.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexei Popyrin 0 – 3 Thanasi Kokkinakis

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-01

qualification - 1. round

Alexei Popyrin #103

Thanasi Kokkinakis #431

6-4 2-3
7 Aces 5
2 Double Faults 2
39 Service Points 45
24 First Serve In 24
22 First Serve Won 20
10 Second Serve Won 12
0 Break Points Saved 1
0 Break Points Faced 2
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
2.5 Average Odds 1.5
Clay Roland Garros · 2024-05-27

R128

Thanasi Kokkinakis #100

Alexei Popyrin #51

4-6 7-6(8) 6-3 5-7 6-3
13 Aces 11
5 Double Faults 7
154 Service Points 167
95 First Serve In 104
75 First Serve Won 70
32 Second Serve Won 31
7 Break Points Saved 8
12 Break Points Faced 14
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Manama CH · 2023-02-13

QF

Thanasi Kokkinakis #141

Alexei Popyrin #91

6-3 7-6(5)
5 Aces 6
0 Double Faults 3
69 Service Points 82
50 First Serve In 56
39 First Serve Won 44
13 Second Serve Won 8
2 Break Points Saved 9
2 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Adelaide 2 · 2023-01-09

R32

Thanasi Kokkinakis #110

Alexei Popyrin #113

6-0 6-7(5) 7-5
11 Aces 11
2 Double Faults 8
101 Service Points 99
67 First Serve In 51
50 First Serve Won 41
18 Second Serve Won 17
5 Break Points Saved 4
6 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Alexei Popyrin — Last 10

L W L W L L W W W L

Thanasi Kokkinakis — Last 10

L L L W L L W W L W