ATP tennis predict — Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Alexei Popyrin

Australia

64.09%

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Argentina

35.91%

Average Odds

1.61 / 2.30

Market probability

58.82% / 41.18%

Why This Prediction?

Alexei Popyrin is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (68.0% vs 57.8% of service points won), more wins on hard courts (117 vs 5) and fewer double faults per game (0.10 vs 0.21).

Player Comparison

1673.2 Elo 1670.2

1554.2 Elo (surface) 1527.2

180 Wins 38

117 Wins (surface) 5

7 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.030 Dominance ratio 0.914

139 Rank 56

27.0 Age 24.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexei Popyrin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexei Popyrin Roman Andres Burruchaga

1st Serve In %

59.5%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.9%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

33.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.3%

60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.1%

67.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.72

0.10

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexei Popyrin Roman Andres Burruchaga

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

63.7%

Break Points Converted %

30.8%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexei Popyrin 0 – 0 Roman Andres Burruchaga

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Alexei Popyrin #139

Roman Andres Burruchaga #56

4-6 7-5 6-3

16 Aces 8

2 Double Faults 5

92 Service Points 81

65 First Serve In 45

47 First Serve Won 33

18 Second Serve Won 20

4 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 7

38 Winners 29

40 Unforced Errors 26

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga — Prediction