ATP tennis predict — Alexei Popyrin vs Hugo Gaston

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · R16 20:00

Predicted probability

Alexei Popyrin

Australia

47.87%

Hugo Gaston

France

52.13%

Average Odds

1.38 / 2.73

Market probability

66.42% / 33.58%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1687.0 Elo 1667.8

1571.6 Elo (surface) 1712.3

71 Wins (Challenger) 133

35 Wins (surface) 61

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.132 Dominance ratio 1.136

128 Rank 97

27.0 Age 25.9

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexei Popyrin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexei Popyrin Hugo Gaston

1st Serve In %

59.5%

54.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.9%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

37.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.3%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.1%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.72

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexei Popyrin Hugo Gaston

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

52.8%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

30.8%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexei Popyrin 0 – 1 Hugo Gaston

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-20

R16

Hugo Gaston #97

Alexei Popyrin #128

5-2

1 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 0

20 Service Points 21

15 First Serve In 15

9 First Serve Won 13

2 Second Serve Won 3

1 Break Points Saved 0

2 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.7 Average Odds 1.4

Grass Wimbledon · 2022-06-27

R128

Hugo Gaston #66

Alexei Popyrin #83

6-2 4-6 0-6 7-6(3) 6-3

8 Aces 10

8 Double Faults 7

155 Service Points 160

80 First Serve In 103

54 First Serve Won 63

36 Second Serve Won 28

5 Break Points Saved 10

12 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alexei Popyrin vs Hugo Gaston — Prediction