ATP tennis predict — Alexei Popyrin vs Francesco Maestrelli

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · 1. round 00:40

Predicted probability

Alexei Popyrin

Australia

66.22%

Francesco Maestrelli

Italy

33.78%

Average Odds

1.35 / 3.01

Market probability

69.04% / 30.96%

Why This Prediction?

Alexei Popyrin is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1680 vs 1544), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1561 vs 1503) and a stronger serve (68.1% vs 62.4% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1680.4 Elo 1544.2

1561.0 Elo (surface) 1503.3

70 Wins (Challenger) 132

34 Wins (surface) 52

7 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.134 Dominance ratio 0.978

128 Rank 166

27.0 Age 23.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexei Popyrin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Francesco Maestrelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexei Popyrin Francesco Maestrelli

1st Serve In %

59.5%

64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.9%

71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

44.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.3%

55.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.1%

76.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%

56.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

36.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.72

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexei Popyrin Francesco Maestrelli

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

71.0%

Break Points Converted %

30.8%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexei Popyrin 0 – 0 Francesco Maestrelli

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-19

1. round

Alexei Popyrin #128

Francesco Maestrelli #166

6-4 7-6

5 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 0

76 Service Points 62

46 First Serve In 40

30 First Serve Won 32

18 Second Serve Won 15

5 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 3.0

Alexei Popyrin vs Francesco Maestrelli — Prediction