ATP tennis predict — Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Alexei Popyrin

Australia

36.88%

Alejandro Tabilo

Chile

63.12%

Average Odds

2.39 / 1.58

Market probability

39.80% / 60.20%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Tabilo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1761 vs 1587), a higher Elo rating (1804 vs 1692) and a stronger return game (42.0% vs 36.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1691.9 Elo 1803.8

1587.1 Elo (surface) 1760.8

183 Wins 136

120 Wins (surface) 66

8 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.065 Dominance ratio 0.880

130 Rank 28

27.1 Age 29.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexei Popyrin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alejandro Tabilo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexei Popyrin Alejandro Tabilo

1st Serve In %

59.5%

59.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.9%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.4%

20.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.6%

43.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.77

0.66

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.3%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.1%

76.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.9%

53.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.72

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexei Popyrin Alejandro Tabilo

Break Points Saved %

56.0%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

32.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

73.0%

Break Points Converted %

30.8%

43.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexei Popyrin 1 – 0 Alejandro Tabilo

Hard US Open · 2026-09-03

2. round

Alejandro Tabilo #28

Alexei Popyrin #130

2-6 7-6 7-6 6-2

25 Aces 17

6 Double Faults 5

135 Service Points 114

87 First Serve In 65

60 First Serve Won 54

27 Second Serve Won 30

4 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 5

49 Winners 55

35 Unforced Errors 22

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Clay Roland Garros · 2025-05-26

R64

Alexei Popyrin #25

Alejandro Tabilo #61

7-5 6-3 6-4

8 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 4

86 Service Points 104

56 First Serve In 70

43 First Serve Won 41

17 Second Serve Won 18

6 Break Points Saved 6

8 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo — Prediction