ATP tennis predict — Alexandre Muller vs Stefano Napolitano

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Alexandre Muller

France

56.17%

Stefano Napolitano

Italy

43.83%

Average Odds

1.50 / 2.47

Market probability

62.22% / 37.78%

Why This Prediction?

Alexandre Muller is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (64.0% vs 57.5% of service points won), more wins on clay courts (40 vs 17) and a better head-to-head record against Stefano Napolitano (1-0).

Player Comparison

1631.6 Elo 1632.3

1602.3 Elo (surface) 1624.2

173 Wins (Challenger) 198

114 Wins (surface) 113

9 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.013 Dominance ratio 0.899

179 Rank 208

29.5 Age 31.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexandre Muller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Stefano Napolitano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandre Muller Stefano Napolitano

1st Serve In %

66.1%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.4%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.3%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

55.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.1%

71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%

33.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

47.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandre Muller Stefano Napolitano

Break Points Saved %

67.9%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

30.0%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

39.3%

34.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexandre Muller 1 – 0 Stefano Napolitano

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-27

1. round

Alexandre Muller #132

Stefano Napolitano #229

6-2 6-4

6 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 2

49 Service Points 58

26 First Serve In 31

21 First Serve Won 20

16 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 4

1 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Clay Biella 7 CH · 2021-05-31

R32

Alexandre Muller #191

Stefano Napolitano #332

6-4 6-1

5 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 3

50 Service Points 48

31 First Serve In 23

25 First Serve Won 11

10 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Alexandre Muller vs Stefano Napolitano — Prediction