ATP tennis predict — Alexandre Muller vs Mili Poljicak

Challenger Clay San Marino challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Alexandre Muller

France

40.74%

Mili Poljicak

Croatia

59.26%

Average Odds

1.50 / 2.49

Market probability

62.41% / 37.59%

Why This Prediction?

Mili Poljicak is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1678 vs 1633), a stronger serve (67.9% vs 64.5% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating (1659 vs 1655).

Player Comparison

1654.7 Elo 1658.8

1633.4 Elo (surface) 1678.3

175 Wins (Challenger) 49

116 Wins (surface) 47

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.063 Dominance ratio 1.243

132 Rank 352

29.5 Age 22.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alexandre Muller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Mili Poljicak

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-23.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandre Muller Mili Poljicak

1st Serve In %

66.1%

53.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.4%

74.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

45.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.3%

27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

42.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.5%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.1%

74.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%

58.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.5%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alexandre Muller Mili Poljicak

Break Points Saved %

67.9%

65.2%

Break Points Converted %

30.0%

27.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.5%

57.5%

Break Points Converted %

39.3%

33.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alexandre Muller 0 – 0 Mili Poljicak

Clay San Marino challenger · 2026-07-31

QF

Mili Poljicak #352

Alexandre Muller #132

7-6 6-7 7-5

6 Aces 17

5 Double Faults 2

119 Service Points 115

78 First Serve In 68

57 First Serve Won 58

26 Second Serve Won 21

4 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Alexandre Muller vs Mili Poljicak — Prediction